Brian Armstrong: Coinbase's product showcase, Dec 17, 2025
At the keynote on Dec 17, 2025, Brian Armstrong said 6 of the 17 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction Market | Yes | 2 | 7 | ✓ | 75%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ethereum 2+ times | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stablecoin 2+ times | Yes | 2 | 20 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | 1 | 14 | ✓ | 75%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Token Sale | Yes | 1 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Delaware | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| BVNK | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solana DEX / Solana Decentralized Exchange | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cobie | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Echo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solana | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Base Token | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Acquisition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Doge / Dogecoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Perpetual Futures / Perp | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 10%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tokenized Equity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 10%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Coinbase (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
7 matches for “Prediction Market”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…just crypto. And customers want one place where they can trade equities, prediction markets, commodities using spot trading, derivatives, and options. And as every asset…
…Everything Exchange. You can now trade multiple asset classes on Coinbase. Equities, prediction markets, millions of crypto assets, token sales, simple derivatives, anywhere, anytime. Next,…
Where the listed words were said
…we've also incubated the most popular layer 2 blockchain on top of Ethereum called Bass, which gives developers a powerful foundation to build crypto utility…
…been tokenizing assets for many years at Coinbase with wrapped Bitcoin and stable coins. But that was just the beginning. So today we're excited to…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/brian-armstrong:2025-12-17:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=brian-armstrong:2025-12-17:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP