TBPN: Episode, Oct 28, 2025
On the Oct 28, 2025 episode of TBPN, 3 of the 10 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 9 of 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
10 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 9 of 10- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game / Gaming | Yes | 12 | 21 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 7 | 25 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ChatGPT | Yes | 0 | 8 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Agentic AI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talent | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teams | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “Token”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…power. Right? Which is if they sort of say intelligence is about tokens per dollar per watt, we gotta get efficient on all of it.…
Where the listed words were said
Any of you guys have thought about. Like, that's a game changer. Yep. So it pre and oh, by the way, we're all, like, excited…
Is when I first saw GitHub Copilot. Sure. And I said, man, this is what?
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-10-28:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-10-28:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP