TBPN: Episode, Oct 28, 2025
On the Oct 28, 2025 episode of TBPN, 3 of the 10 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 9 of 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
10 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 9 of 10- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game / Gaming | Yes | 12 | 21 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 7 | 25 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ChatGPT | Yes | 0 | 8 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Agentic AI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talent | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teams | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
54 matches for “OpenAI”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
But the story actually got started, even the OpenAI one. I've known Sam for a long time since his first company, pre y c days.…
And if I remember right, '23 is the blip, the the November blip with OpenAI, and then everything has been smooth since then. The blip.
…is another part of this partnership, which is I'm glad, you know, OpenAI is continuing to do great work. Jacob, Mark, others are great, and…
…love Postgres? Absolutely. Sure. .Net Java. Yeah. Yeah. Hey. I'm happy with OpenAI. I would love to have Anthropic, MAI, anyone. If Google wants to…
Where the listed words were said
Any of you guys have thought about. Like, that's a game changer. Yep. So it pre and oh, by the way, we're all, like, excited…
Is when I first saw GitHub Copilot. Sure. And I said, man, this is what?
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-10-28:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-10-28:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP