TBPN: Episode, Oct 28, 2025
On the Oct 28, 2025 episode of TBPN, 3 of the 10 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 9 of 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
10 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 9 of 10- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game / Gaming | Yes | 12 | 21 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 7 | 25 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ChatGPT | Yes | 0 | 8 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Agentic AI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talent | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teams | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
25 matches for “Copilot”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Is when I first saw GitHub Copilot. Sure. And I said, man, this is what?
…is even in when I see m three Microsoft three six five Copilot, man, the amount just like right now, the number of repos on…
…Puts the formulas. I can then iterate like I iterate on GitHub Copilot. So so those systems so if you ask me about, you know,…
Around it. Like, when I look at GitHub Copilot today with AgentHQ and what have you, that's great pry because right now, I'm inundated with…
…bunch of student developers right here. Oh, sure. It is the first cohort of developers who grew up with GitHub Copilot as standard issue when
Where the listed words were said
Any of you guys have thought about. Like, that's a game changer. Yep. So it pre and oh, by the way, we're all, like, excited…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-10-28:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-10-28:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP