FedEx (FDX): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Sep 18, 2025
On its Sep 18, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), FedEx said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Yes | 38 | 52 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Freight | Yes | 31 | 33 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Network | Yes | 20 | 21 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Demand | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cost | Yes | 17 | 25 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Share | Yes | 11 | 13 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Europe | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| EPS | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| De Minimis | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| E-commerce / Ecommerce | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Guidance | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 77%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Labor | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Smith | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
21 matches for “Network”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…trade environment. Our results demonstrate the resilience we have built into our network. They also reflect the dedication of our world-class team who have adapted…
…improving our European operations. These strategies are enabling us to flex the network faster than ever before and lowering our cost to serve, all while…
…Last quarter, I spoke about the degree to which we flexed our networks to better match the demand environment amid global trade shifts. As policies…
…advancing the elements of our transformation that are unique to FedEx. The Network 2.0 rollout is progressing well and customer feedback, especially when it comes…
…exit September with nearly 3 million in average daily volume flowing through Network 2.0 optimized operations. Looking beyond Network 2.0, improving profitability in Europe remains…
Where the listed words were said
…track record of strong operational execution. Turning to our consolidated Q1 results. Revenue was up 3% year-over-year, driven by strength across our U.S. domestic package…
…the industry trends that we have seen in recent quarters, revenue at Freight remained pressure. That said, despite the prolonged weakness in the industrial economy,…
…talked earlier about how our Tricolor strategy enabled us to flex the network to adapt to changing demand patterns. Tricolor is also driving greater densification…
…commerce gives us an unmatched view of physical supply chain patterns, seasonal demand shifts and emerging trade corridors. This real-world operational data platform cannot be…
…updates, the company also expects to reduce support calls, cancellations and reship costs. We are excited to partner with Best Buy to create a smarter,…
…expect full year adjusted earnings to be $17.20 to $19 per diluted share. This reflects a range of scenarios in what remains a dynamic global…
…in both outbound weight and volume, supported by strong growth in our health care vertical. At FedEx Freight, along with broader industry trends, average daily…
…time, we shifted capacity to capture profitable revenue on the Asia to Europe lane. With the full removal of the de minimis exemption in the…
…very well in Q1, with results above the midpoint of our adjusted EPS outlook range. We also maintained our disciplined approach to capital expenditure, continue…
…the reduction in lightweight e-commerce volume due to the change in the de minimis exemption. Our Tricolor strategy continued to drive growth in international priority…
…profitable, but it's also very sticky. And then, of course, from an e-commerce perspective, you have seen that HD ground economy bundle working. We are…
…the Q2. And we have focused our commentary on the full year guidance and are not giving Q2 guidance. But that said, as Brie mentioned,…
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