FedEx (FDX): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Sep 18, 2025
On its Sep 18, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), FedEx said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Yes | 38 | 52 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Freight | Yes | 31 | 33 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Network | Yes | 20 | 21 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Demand | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cost | Yes | 17 | 25 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Share | Yes | 11 | 13 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Europe | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| EPS | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| De Minimis | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| E-commerce / Ecommerce | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Guidance | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 77%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Labor | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Smith | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
30 matches for “Headwind”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…margin by 70 basis points. Notably, we achieved this result despite continued headwinds from the trade environment and the U.S. Postal Service contract expiration. Consistent…
…of Southeast Asia and Europe. This provided a partial offset against the headwinds to demand on the China to U.S. export lane. The team has…
…share, up 6% year-over-year. And we delivered these positive results despite significant headwinds from reduced international export demand and the expiration of the U.S. Postal…
…grew adjusted operating income by approximately $90 million despite the $150 million headwind from the global trade environment, $130 million of headwind from the U.S.…
…were partially offset by higher wage and purchase transportation rates and the headwinds I mentioned earlier. As expected, due to the evolving trade environment in…
Where the listed words were said
…track record of strong operational execution. Turning to our consolidated Q1 results. Revenue was up 3% year-over-year, driven by strength across our U.S. domestic package…
…an impressive 14% year-over-year Q1 revenue growth in international priority and economy freight with high flow-through. Data and technology remain foundational to our business, but…
…trade environment. Our results demonstrate the resilience we have built into our network. They also reflect the dedication of our world-class team who have adapted…
…I'm confident that we'll unlock significant upside across the enterprise when the demand environment improves. Last quarter, I spoke about the degree to which we…
…us to flex the network faster than ever before and lowering our cost to serve, all while providing our customers with high-quality service. Importantly, we…
…expect full year adjusted earnings to be $17.20 to $19 per diluted share. This reflects a range of scenarios in what remains a dynamic global…
…and of course, global airfreight. Within B2B, we continue to onboard new health care business in Q1, building on our momentum from prior quarters. This…
…time, we shifted capacity to capture profitable revenue on the Asia to Europe lane. With the full removal of the de minimis exemption in the…
…very well in Q1, with results above the midpoint of our adjusted EPS outlook range. We also maintained our disciplined approach to capital expenditure, continue…
…the reduction in lightweight e-commerce volume due to the change in the de minimis exemption. Our Tricolor strategy continued to drive growth in international priority…
…profitable, but it's also very sticky. And then, of course, from an e-commerce perspective, you have seen that HD ground economy bundle working. We are…
…the Q2. And we have focused our commentary on the full year guidance and are not giving Q2 guidance. But that said, as Brie mentioned,…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fedex:2025-09-18:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fedex:2025-09-18:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP