FedEx (FDX): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Sep 18, 2025
On its Sep 18, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), FedEx said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Yes | 38 | 52 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Freight | Yes | 31 | 33 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Network | Yes | 20 | 21 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Demand | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cost | Yes | 17 | 25 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Share | Yes | 11 | 13 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Europe | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| EPS | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| De Minimis | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| E-commerce / Ecommerce | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Guidance | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 77%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Labor | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Smith | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “Fuel”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…our pricing changes in the quarter, which included an increase in our fuel surcharge index. At FEC, U.S. domestic package yield was up 3%, driven…
…per shipment declined 1%, driven by lower revenue per hundredweight and lower fuel surcharges. While weight per shipment was flat year-over-year, we are encouraged by…
…edge, especially as AI has now evolved and is moving quickly, the fuel for AI is data. And have engineered data and the high-value data…
…From a yield -- the other thing to note is, of course, fuel was very helpful in the first quarter, and that will continue through…
Where the listed words were said
…track record of strong operational execution. Turning to our consolidated Q1 results. Revenue was up 3% year-over-year, driven by strength across our U.S. domestic package…
…the industry trends that we have seen in recent quarters, revenue at Freight remained pressure. That said, despite the prolonged weakness in the industrial economy,…
…trade environment. Our results demonstrate the resilience we have built into our network. They also reflect the dedication of our world-class team who have adapted…
…I'm confident that we'll unlock significant upside across the enterprise when the demand environment improves. Last quarter, I spoke about the degree to which we…
…us to flex the network faster than ever before and lowering our cost to serve, all while providing our customers with high-quality service. Importantly, we…
…expect full year adjusted earnings to be $17.20 to $19 per diluted share. This reflects a range of scenarios in what remains a dynamic global…
…in both outbound weight and volume, supported by strong growth in our health care vertical. At FedEx Freight, along with broader industry trends, average daily…
…time, we shifted capacity to capture profitable revenue on the Asia to Europe lane. With the full removal of the de minimis exemption in the…
…very well in Q1, with results above the midpoint of our adjusted EPS outlook range. We also maintained our disciplined approach to capital expenditure, continue…
…So our full year assumption, it does include the removal of the de minimis exemption for the rest of the world that went to effect…
…profitable, but it's also very sticky. And then, of course, from an e-commerce perspective, you have seen that HD ground economy bundle working. We are…
…the Q2. And we have focused our commentary on the full year guidance and are not giving Q2 guidance. But that said, as Brie mentioned,…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fedex:2025-09-18:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fedex:2025-09-18:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP