Will Sam Altman say “Innovation”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “Innovation” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 22, 2025.

Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)
Last 10
0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=innovation

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Sam Altman

Innovation

Probability
– · n=1 (too little history)
Settled
0/1 (0%)
Last 2 transcripts
said in 2 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Sam AltmanguestTBPN Podcast, October 10, 2025: Sam Altman LIVE on Sora, Hollywood, & the Future of Ads | Bill Peebles, Dylan Patel, Elad Gil, Robby Stein, Morgan Housel, Misha Laskin · Oct 10, 2025 · 1:04:24In transcript

…you actually totally okay with a world where we do the product innovation and everybody else copies, and I don't think it works for them…

What will Sam Altman say during his CNBC interview? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during CNBC: Squawk on the Street? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during the TBPN Podcast? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during his Fireside chat at the Large Banks Conference? · our count 1 · the market settled no

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.

Every match in the transcript

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jul 22, 2025InnovationKalshiNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)

Questions

How often does Sam Altman say “Innovation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “Innovation” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 22, 2025.
What is the probability Sam Altman says “Innovation” next time?
17%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Innovation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/innovation (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=innovation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP