King Charles III
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 119 word markets on King Charles III’s appearances since 2025, on 75 different words.
History Wall
1–40 of 76, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Dec 26 ’25speech | Apr 28 ’26remarks | Apr 28speech | May 13latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Settled no: Trump, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 28 speech | Settled no: Trump, May 13 speech | 2/450% | 2/450% | 46%n=4 from settlement history |
| NATO | Not listed: NATO, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: NATO, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: NATO, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: NATO, May 13 speech | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 58%n=3 from settlement history |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Ukraine, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Ukraine, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Ukraine, May 13 speech | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 58%n=3 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 28 speech | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 13 speech | 2/367% | 2/367% | 47%n=3 from settlement history |
| Democracy | Not listed: Democracy, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Democracy, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Democracy, Apr 28 speech | Settled no: Democracy, May 13 speech | 2/367% | 2/367% | 47%n=3 from settlement history |
| Climate | Not listed: Climate, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Climate, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Climate, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Climate, May 13 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 45%n=3 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 28 speech | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, May 13 speech | 0/30% | 0/30% | 35%n=3 from settlement history |
| 250 | Not listed: 250, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: 250, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: 250, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: 250, May 13 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| Peace | Not listed: Peace, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Peace, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Peace, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Peace, May 13 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| Revolution / Revolutionary | Not listed: Revolution / Revolutionary, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Revolution / Revolutionary, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Revolution / Revolutionary, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Revolution / Revolutionary, May 13 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| World War | Not listed: World War, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: World War, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: World War, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: World War, May 13 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| 1776 | Not listed: 1776, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: 1776, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: 1776, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: 1776, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Churchill | Not listed: Churchill, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Churchill, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Churchill, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Churchill, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 49%n=2 from settlement history |
| Founding Father | Not listed: Founding Father, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Founding Father, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Founding Father, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Founding Father, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Settled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Immigrant / Immigration, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 50%n=2 from settlement history |
| Lincoln | Not listed: Lincoln, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Lincoln, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Lincoln, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Lincoln, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Queen | Not listed: Queen, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Queen, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Queen, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Queen, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Russia / Russian | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Russia / Russian, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Russia / Russian, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Russia / Russian, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 49%n=2 from settlement history |
| UN / United Nation | Not listed: UN / United Nation, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: UN / United Nation, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: UN / United Nation, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: UN / United Nation, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| War | Not listed: War, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: War, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: War, Apr 28 speech | Settled no: War, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| White House | Not listed: White House, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: White House, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: White House, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: White House, May 13 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 49%n=2 from settlement history |
| Ballroom | Not listed: Ballroom, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Ballroom, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Ballroom, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Ballroom, May 13 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Epstein, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Epstein, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Epstein, May 13 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| God Bless America | Not listed: God Bless America, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: God Bless America, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: God Bless America, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: God Bless America, May 13 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Oil, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Oil, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Oil, May 13 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Special Relationship | Not listed: Special Relationship, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled no: Special Relationship, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Special Relationship, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Special Relationship, May 13 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| 250 / 250th | Not listed: 250 / 250th, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: 250 / 250th, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: 250 / 250th, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: 250 / 250th, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| American / America15+ times | Not listed: American / America 15+ times, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: American / America 15+ times, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: American / America 15+ times, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: American / America 15+ times, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Anniversary | Not listed: Anniversary, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Anniversary, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Anniversary, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Anniversary, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Colony | Not listed: Colony, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Colony, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Colony, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Colony, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Common / Commons | Not listed: Common / Commons, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Common / Commons, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Common / Commons, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Common / Commons, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Commonwealth | Settled yes: Commonwealth, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Commonwealth, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Commonwealth, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Commonwealth, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Conflict | Settled yes: Conflict, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Conflict, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Conflict, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Conflict, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crown / Prince | Not listed: Crown / Prince, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Crown / Prince, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Crown / Prince, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Crown / Prince, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Defense | Not listed: Defense, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Defense, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Defense, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Defense, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy | Not listed: Economy, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Economy, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Economy, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Economy, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Education | Not listed: Education, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Education, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Education, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Education, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Queen / Elizabeth | Not listed: Queen / Elizabeth, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Queen / Elizabeth, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Queen / Elizabeth, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: Queen / Elizabeth, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| George / Washington | Not listed: George / Washington, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Settled yes: George / Washington, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: George / Washington, Apr 28 speech | Not listed: George / Washington, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Government3+ times | Not listed: Government 3+ times, Dec 26 ’25 speech | Not listed: Government 3+ times, Apr 28 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Government 3+ times, Apr 28 speech | Settled yes: Government 3+ times, May 13 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | SpeechWhat will King Charles III say during the State Opening of Parliament? | no transcript | 41 | 15 yes · 26 no | – |
| Apr 28, 2026 | RemarksWhat will King Charles III say during his White House Dinner? | no transcript | 46 | 28 yes · 18 no | – |
| Apr 28, 2026 | SpeechWhat will King Charles III say during his US Address? | no transcript | 26 | 14 yes · 12 no | – |
| Dec 26, 2025 | SpeechWhat will King Charles III say during his Christmas speech? | no transcript | 9 | 2 yes · 7 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “King Charles III: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/king-charles-iii (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/king-charles-iii · words: /api/v1/history?entity=king-charles-iii · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP