Will Donald Trump say “State”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “State” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 25, 2026.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8. 3 later rallies without a transcript yet (since Oct 26, 2026) are not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
State
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…our country before. But I'm thrilled to be back in this incredible state which we won two years ago in a very big very big…
…You know, you know, I'm thrilled to be back in this unbelievable state, but we won this state two years ago with more votes than…
…love you, Florida. And I'm thrilled to be back in my home state, Florida. I won. You know, we won all three times with the…
…Iowa. It's a incredible place. I'm thrilled to be back in this state that, you know, I shouldn't say I shouldn't break, should I? Yeah.…
…directed us at the Department of Justice to work with DHS, Treasury, State and the Department of War to build out a single plan to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | State |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “State”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “State” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “State” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘State’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/state (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=state · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP