Will Donald Trump say “Mexico” 4+ times?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mexico” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Nov 4, 2024.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mexico 4+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…200,000 cars a year. They came out of They're closing up in Mexico. They're closing up in Canada. They're building here and other places. Because…
…want every single city, village, and everything along the Texas border with Mexico composed of 95% Spanish, Hispanic people, Hispanic." He said, "You want every…
…even believe. Did you like the change of the name Gulf of Mexico to you know it never made sense to me because 93% of…
…car plants are all coming in from Canada, they're coming in from Mexico, they're coming in from Germany and Japan, South Korea. You know, they…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | Mexico 4+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mexico 4+ times”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mexico” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Nov 4, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mexico 4+ times” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mexico 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mexico-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mexico%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP