Will Donald Trump say “Critical Mineral”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Critical Mineral” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 14, 2026.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Critical Mineral
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Critical Mineral |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Critical Mineral”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Critical Mineral” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Critical Mineral” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Critical Mineral’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/critical-mineral (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=critical%20mineral · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP