Will Rand Paul say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Rand Paul did not say “Ceasefire” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Rand Paul
Ceasefire
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Rand Paul yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Ceasefire |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Rand Paul say “Ceasefire”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Rand Paul did not say “Ceasefire” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Rand Paul says “Ceasefire” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Rand Paul: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/rand-paul/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=rand-paul&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=rand-paul&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP