Ken Paxton: Speech, Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Ken Paxton say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Markets
11 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attorney General | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christian / Christianity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talarico | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cornyn | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election / Midterm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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