Will Joe Manchin say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Manchin did not say “Fraud” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 14, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Aug 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Joe Manchin
Fraud
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Fraud |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Joe Manchin say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Manchin did not say “Fraud” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Joe Manchin says “Fraud” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Joe Manchin: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/joe-manchin/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=joe-manchin&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=joe-manchin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP