Will Joe Manchin say “Democrat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Manchin said “Democrat” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 14, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Aug 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Joe Manchin
Democrat
- Probability
- 52% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 8 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Joe Manchin say “Democrat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Manchin said “Democrat” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 14, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Joe Manchin says “Democrat” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Joe Manchin: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/joe-manchin/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=joe-manchin&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=joe-manchin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP