Will Jacob Frey say “Self Defense”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Self Defense” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jacob Frey
Self Defense
- Probability
- 50% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | Self Defense |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Self Defense | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Self Defense | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Jacob Frey say “Self Defense”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Self Defense” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Jacob Frey says “Self Defense” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jacob Frey: ‘Self Defense’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jacob-frey/words/self-defense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jacob-frey&word=self%20defense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jacob-frey&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP