Will Jacob Frey say “Invade / Invading / Invasion”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jacob Frey did not say “Invade / Invading / Invasion” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jacob Frey
Invade / Invading / Invasion
- Probability
- 43% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…are flipping out that their longest ally, America, is now threatening to invade part of their territory. Those other countries that Trump is now threatening…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | Invade / Invading / Invasion |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Invade / Invading / Invasion | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Jacob Frey say “Invade / Invading / Invasion”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jacob Frey did not say “Invade / Invading / Invasion” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Jacob Frey says “Invade / Invading / Invasion” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jacob Frey: ‘Invade / Invading / Invasion’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jacob-frey/words/invade-or-invading-or-invasion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jacob-frey&word=invade%20%2F%20invading%20%2F%20invasion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jacob-frey&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP