Hunter Biden: Episode, Jun 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Hunter Biden say during the This is Gavin Newsom Podcast?
Markets
18 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Conspiracy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pratt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHBIDENMENTION-26JUN12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP