What is the probability “Las Vegas” is said on World News Tonight next time?

42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Las Vegas” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Las Vegas” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, “Las Vegas” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 14, 2026 – Oct 26, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2.

42%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 16:00 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Las Vegas

Probability: 42% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 26, 2026 · Oct 26, 2026 · 9:31In transcript

…United Airlines Flight attendant noticed the pilot was being scared and forced a United flight from Las Vegas to Newark to make an emergency landing.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 15, 2026 · Oct 15, 2026 · 21:00In transcript

…confirmed cases in Pennsylvania alone. Well, tonight, a mystery just revealed by Las Vegas police. Authorities now identifying the body found in a barrel in…