What is the probability “Canada” is said on World News Tonight next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Canada” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Canada” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Canada” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.

47%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 16:06 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Canada

Probability: 47% · n=2
Settled: 2/2 (100%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 13, 2026 · Oct 13, 2026 · 8:24In transcript

…incident, Six Flags now saying they will temporarily close nine other similar roller coasters across the U.S. and Canada out of an abundance of caution.