What is the probability “Moon / Lunar” is said on Special Report next time?

46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Moon / Lunar” be said on Special Report next time?

Name: Special Report: “Moon / Lunar” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Moon / Lunar” was said on Special Report in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 7, 2026.

Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 21:55 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Special Report with Bret Baier

Moon / Lunar

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 episodes: said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Jeff Bezos say during Special Report with Bret Baier? · said 20 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

20 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.

Jeff Bezosguest5:17In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Jeff Bezosguest5:42In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Anthropic co-founder say during Fox News: Special Report? · not listed

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What will Jay Clayton say during Fox News: Special Report? · not listed

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What will Mark Rutte say during Fox News: Special Report? · not listed

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What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Oct 7, 2026	Moon / Lunar	Kalshi	Yes	20

Questions

How often is “Moon / Lunar” said on Special Report?: As of Oct 25, 2026, “Moon / Lunar” was said on Special Report in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 7, 2026.
What is the probability “Moon / Lunar” is said on Special Report next time?: 46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Special Report: ‘Moon / Lunar’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/special-report-with-bret-baier/words/lunar-or-moon (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=special-report-with-bret-baier&word=lunar%20%2F%20moon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=special-report-with-bret-baier&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP