What is the probability “Supreme Leader” is said on Face the Nation next time?

41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Supreme Leader” be said on Face the Nation next time?

Name: Face the Nation: “Supreme Leader” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Supreme Leader” was not said on Face the Nation in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 23, 2026.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 04:13 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Face the Nation

Supreme Leader

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

BRETT MCGURKotherFace the Nation (CBS), October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026In transcript

…we can stop the war right now if Hamas says yes. Khamenei, supreme leader of Iran, gives a defiant speech praising October 7th, and basically…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

PRESIDENT MASOUD PEZESHKIAN (through translator)otherFace the Nation (CBS), September 27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

…administration. Put yourself in our position. Imagine someone came and martyred your supreme leader, and then not abide by everything you had agreed upon. What…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Chris Wright say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will John Kennedy say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Chris Wright say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Richard Blumenthal say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Jared Isaacman say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Lindsey Graham say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Chris Wright say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Feb 23, 2026	Supreme Leader	Kalshi	No	0

Questions

How often is “Supreme Leader” said on Face the Nation?: As of Oct 25, 2026, “Supreme Leader” was not said on Face the Nation in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 23, 2026.
What is the probability “Supreme Leader” is said on Face the Nation next time?: 41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Supreme Leader’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/supreme-leader (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=supreme%20leader · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP