Stephen Miran: Keynote, Nov 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Stephen Miran say during his speech at the BCVC Summit?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Genius Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Restrictive | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Token / Tokenization | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed Chair | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Powell | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMIRANMENTION-25NOV08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP