What is the probability “Gay” is said on ESPYS next time?

24%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Name: ESPYS: “Gay” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Gay” was not said on ESPYS in the only episode with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jul 17, 2025.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 11:16 UTC

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ESPYS

Next listing counts: anyone

We don’t have transcripts for ESPYS yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Marcello Hernández say during his ESPYS Opening Monologue? · not listed

What will Shane Gillis say during ESPYs Opening Monologue? · settled no

What will Shane Gillis say during the Opening Monologue at the 2025 ESPYs? · not listed

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Jul 17, 2025	Gay	Polymarket	No

How often is “Gay” said on ESPYS?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Gay” was not said on ESPYS in the only episode with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jul 17, 2025.
What is the probability “Gay” is said on ESPYS next time?: 24%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “ESPYS: ‘Gay’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/espys/words/gay (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=espys&word=gay · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=espys&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP