All-In Podcast: Episode, Mar 20, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 20)
Markets
21 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| War | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Agent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – | |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Barrel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sam / Altman | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dictator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Festival | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas Price / Gas Station | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sharp / Stupid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palantir | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-march-20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP