Political debates, Oct 22, 2025
Polymarket What will be said at 2nd NYC mayoral debate?
Markets
25 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defund / Defunding | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rikers / Manhattan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sexual / Harassment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Uganda / Venezuela | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordability / Affordable 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York / New Yorker 45+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Genocide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Migrant 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew / Muslim / Christian 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President/Trump 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cat / PETA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / DOGE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| LGBTQ / Transgender | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oligarchy / Wall Street | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Public transport 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rent Control / Rent Controlled | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanctuary city / Hottest city | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| War Crime / War Criminal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-at-2nd-nyc-mayoral-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP