# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-08-01 (settled) · 11 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMAM-25AUG · as_of 2026-10-25T02:57:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-08-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMAM-25AUG ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} before Aug 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Newscum	newscum	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Reciprocal	reciprocal	8	3	0.38	YYYnnnnn	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bitcoin	bitcoin	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
Arabian Gulf	arabian gulf	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Ayatollah	ayatollah	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	12	1	0.08	nnnnnnnYnn	0.3	hist	0	0	yes	1
America Party	america party	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Diddy	diddy	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Grok	grok	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Rushmore	rushmore	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	yes	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	yes	1