James Talarico: Interview, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will James Talarico say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
13 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 67%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus / God | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cornyn | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTALARICOMENTION-26APR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP