# Nick Shirley (nick-shirley) · speech 2026-03-26 · 12 words · K k:KXSHIRLEYMENTION-26MAR26B · as_of 2026-10-25T06:20:04Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-26 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSHIRLEYMENTION-26MAR26B ({word} = w of K rows): If Nick Shirley says {word} as part of CPAC: Speech — Nick Shirley, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Learing	learing	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	no
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
California	california	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	yes
Gavin / Newsom	gavin|newsom	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	yes
Billion	billion	2	0	0	nn	0.34	hist	no
Trump	trump	2	0	0	nn	0.34	hist	no
Daycare	daycare	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Democrat	democrat	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Fraud	fraud	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Taxpayer	taxpayer	0	0			0.41	prior	no