Benjamin Netanyahu: Interview, Sep 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Netanyahu say during Fox News: Hannity?
Markets
16 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 76%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | No | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| October 7 | No | 67%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani / Mayor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Lebanon | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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