Benjamin Netanyahu: Episode, May 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Netanyahu say during 60 Minutes?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| October 7 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lebanon | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midnight Hammer / Rising Lion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iron Dome | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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