Benjamin Netanyahu: Interview, Jul 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Netanyahu say during Fox News: Hannity?
Markets
14 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 76%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 76%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Lebanon | No | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Yemen / Houthis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iron Dome | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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