Benjamin Netanyahu: Episode, Jul 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 69%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Lebanon | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iron Dome | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNETANYAHUMENTION-26JUL19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP