# Nick Shirley (nick-shirley) · interview 2026-03-10 · 11 words · K k:KXMENTION-NICK26MAR09 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:53:12Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-10 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-NICK26MAR09 ({word} = w of K rows): If Nick Shirley says {word} as part of Fox News: Gutfeld!, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Learing	learing	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	yes
Billion	billion	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Biden	biden	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Gavin / Newsom	gavin|newsom	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Iran	iran	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Terrorism / Terrorist	terrorism|terrorist	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Walz	walz	0	0			0.37	prior	no