Alex Karp: Episode, Mar 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Alex Karp say during the TBPN Podcast?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surveillance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-KARP26MAR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP