Melania Trump: Keynote, Mar 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her remarks at the Fostering the Future Summit?
Polymarket What will Melania say during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?
Markets
36 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| History / Historic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Lead / Leader / Leadership | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Future | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Empower / Empowering | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Initiative | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Be Best | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Privacy / Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ChatGPT | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| School | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barron | No | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Community 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Department of State | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Executive order | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| First Lady | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foster / Fostering 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Knowledge is power | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UN / United Nations | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Son / Barron | No | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Take It Down | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Donald | No | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / 250th | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cooperation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Husband / Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Career | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Challenge | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Star | No | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26MAR24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP