# Real Time (real-time-with-bill-maher) · tv_episode 2025-11-01 · 12 words · K k:KXMAHERMENTION-25NOV01 · as_of 2026-10-24T10:48:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-01 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMAHERMENTION-25NOV01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Marjorie Taylor Greene says {word} as part of Real Time with Bill Maher, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
America First	america first	1	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Antifa	antifa	1	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Biden	biden	1	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Border	border	1	0	0			0.34	prior	no
China	china	1	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Drug	drug	1	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	0	0			0.34	prior	no
ICE	ice	1	0	0			0.34	prior	no
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	1	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	0	0			0.34	prior	yes