Erika Kirk: Keynote, Dec 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Erika Kirk say during the NYT DealBook Summit?
Markets
12 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campus / College | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God / Faith | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Assassination / Assassinated | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Enemy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Heaven | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Patriot | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXKIRKMENTION-25DEC04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP