Will Erika Kirk say “JD / Vance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Erika Kirk said “JD / Vance” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
30%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Erika Kirk
JD / Vance
- Probability
- 30% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Erika Kirk yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | JD / Vance |  Kalshi | No |
| Dec 10, 2025 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 4, 2025 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Erika Kirk say “JD / Vance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Erika Kirk said “JD / Vance” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Erika Kirk says “JD / Vance” next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Erika Kirk: ‘JD / Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/erika-kirk/words/jd-or-vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=erika-kirk&word=jd%20%2F%20vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=erika-kirk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP