Kamala Harris: Episode, Jul 31, 2025
Kalshi What will Kamala Harris say during the The Late Show With Stephen Colbert?
Polymarket What will Kamala Harris say during Colbert show tonight?
Markets
34 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 107 day | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Book | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defeat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election / Elected | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Governor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Project 2025 | No | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Donald / Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autopen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Big Ugly Bill | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bipartisan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cancelled | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cognitive Decline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cole / Ella / Emhoff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitutional crisis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Error | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gavin / Newsom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nomination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Public Service | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beyonce | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Unburdened | No | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXKAMALAMENTION-25JUL31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP