Congressional hearings, Jun 16, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate hearing on AI in education?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 70%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Critical Thinking | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Guardrail | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hallucinate / Hallucination | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Literacy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teacher / Educator | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privacy | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Claude / Anthropic | No | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Code / Coder / Coding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Google / Gemini | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hack / Hacked / Hacking | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plagiarize / Plagiarism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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