Congressional hearings, Jun 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during Fentanyl Crisis hearing?
Markets
13 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanction / Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Addict / Addicted / Addiction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chemical / Chemically | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crisis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Opioid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Overdose | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rhino | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP