Congressional hearings, Jul 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during House Supreme Court budget hearing?
Markets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 63%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Marshals | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security / Cybersecurity | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Modern / Modernize / Modernized / Modernization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Birthright | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Camera | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dox / Doxed / Doxing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kavanaugh | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Redistricting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Social Media | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP