Bernie Sanders: Panel, Dec 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Bernie Sanders say during his discussion with Robert Costa?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Percent | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Working Class | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AOC / Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inequality | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Authoritarian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Guard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-25DEC05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP