All In with Chris Hayes (MS NOW), September 15, 2026
On the Sep 15, 2026 episode of All In with Chris Hayes, 7 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 12 | 29 | ✓ | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 2 | 11 | ✓ | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 3 | 4 | ✗ | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI / Anthropic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 13 | ✓ | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
0 matches for “DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department”.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-09-15:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-09-15:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP