Special Report with Bret Baier: Episode, Sep 14, 2026
On the Sep 14, 2026 episode of Special Report with Bret Baier, 5 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 3 | 45 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 3 | 13 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Altman | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dario / Amodei | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation / Regulate / Regulated | Yes | 0 | 10 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Automate / Automated / Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Claude / Mythos | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP / Gross Domestic Product | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Open Source | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity / Productive | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession / Bubble | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Superintelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
0 matches for “ICE / TSA”.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/special-report-with-bret-baier:2026-09-14:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=special-report-with-bret-baier:2026-09-14:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP