John Ternus: Apple Keynote, Sep 9, 2026
At the keynote on Sep 9, 2026, John Ternus said 11 of the 32 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 31 of 32 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
32 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 31 of 32- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health / Fitness | Yes | 7 | 48 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple Intelligence | Yes | 4 | 23 | ✓ | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Battery | Yes | 3 | 25 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fold / Folding / Foldable | Yes | 3 | 9 | ✓ | 15%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Siri | Yes | 2 | 46 | ✓ | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AirPods Pro | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Heart Rate | Yes | 1 | 13 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ecosystem | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Aluminum | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ultra | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privacy | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 4 | 32 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fold / Folding / Foldable 10+ times | No | 3 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chip | No | 2 | 15 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Battery Life 3+ times | No | 2 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| One More Thing 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hardware | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dynamic Island | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Satellite | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AirTag | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple Watch SE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Flexible | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Steve Jobs | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Google / Gemini | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| iOS 27 | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apple TV | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Apple (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
46 matches for “Siri”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…experiences that work seamlessly across the products you use every day. From Siri becoming more capable and more personal across your Apple products, to meaningful…
[Woman:] Siri, what did mom mention she wanted to make together during her visit? Siri finds your personal context across apps, like Mail and Messages.…
[INCREASINGLY EXPRESSIVE SIRI:] Hi, hi, hi. Let's find the right voice for you. [INCREASED PACE]: Let's find the right voice for you. I'll practice some…
…entirely new possibilities. Whether you're enjoying content, reliving memories, getting help from Siri AI and Apple Intelligence, or immersing yourself in your favorite apps and…
Where the listed words were said
…the profound impact it's had in helping them take charge of their health, stay active, keep connected to the people who matter most, and in…
…far when your data is no longer yours to control. That's why Apple Intelligence runs on-device whenever it can. When greater capability is needed, Private…
…and the world around you. And of course, you'd give it all-day battery life. You'd want it to be super-easy to use without a big…
…way to achieve that is with a foldable design. Others have created foldables that just feel like two phones awkwardly stuck together. This results in…
…the world around you, making it one of the defining features of AirPods Pro. Now, for those who prefer AirPods without ear tips, we introduced…
…performance, battery, and camera. iPhone 18 Pro's gorgeous design now includes color-matched aluminum and back glass for a more cohesive look. It comes in an…
…Apple Intelligence. Introducing the new Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4. Both have been re-engineered with our most advanced health sensors and…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/john-ternus:2026-09-09:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=john-ternus:2026-09-09:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP