Will Apple say “Tariff”?
Apple said “Tariff” 10 times on its Jul 30, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 6 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 20, 17, 6, 3, 9, 10 times. As of Oct 25, 2026, Apple said “Tariff” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 9, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 86% (n=8, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 93¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Apple
Tariff
- Probability
- 86% · n=8
- Settled
- 4/8 (50%)
- Last calls
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
10 counted (8 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…related to the potential impact to the company's business and results of operations from macroeconomic conditions, tariffs and other measures, and legal and regulatory proceedings.
…years, and now, as we said before, we plan to reinvest the tariff refunds we've received into the U.S. We're pleased with the progress we've…
Counts: company speakers + operator
9 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 7 in Q&A).
…impact to the company's business and results of operations from macroeconomic conditions, tariffs and other measures and legal and regulatory proceedings. For more information, please…
…that Suhasini referred to. Importantly, the color we're providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies and their application remain in effect as of this call…
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…impact to the company's business and results of operations from macroeconomic conditions, tariffs, and other measures, and legal and regulatory proceedings. For more information, please…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Tariff |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Tariff |  Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Tariffs | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Tariff | Polymarket | Yes | 22 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 17 |
| Jun 9, 2025 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did Apple say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
- Apple said “Tariff” 10 times on its Jul 30, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 6 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 20, 17, 6, 3, 9, 10 times.
- How often does Apple say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Apple said “Tariff” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 9, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Apple says “Tariff” next time?
- 86%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Apple: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AAPL/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=apple&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=apple&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP