John Ternus: Apple Keynote, Sep 9, 2026
At the keynote on Sep 9, 2026, John Ternus said 11 of the 32 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 31 of 32 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
32 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 31 of 32- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health / Fitness | Yes | 7 | 48 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple Intelligence | Yes | 4 | 23 | ✓ | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Battery | Yes | 3 | 25 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fold / Folding / Foldable | Yes | 3 | 9 | ✓ | 15%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Siri | Yes | 2 | 46 | ✓ | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AirPods Pro | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Heart Rate | Yes | 1 | 13 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ecosystem | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Aluminum | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ultra | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privacy | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 4 | 32 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fold / Folding / Foldable 10+ times | No | 3 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chip | No | 2 | 15 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Battery Life 3+ times | No | 2 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| One More Thing 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hardware | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dynamic Island | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Satellite | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AirTag | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple Watch SE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Flexible | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Steve Jobs | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Google / Gemini | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| iOS 27 | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apple TV | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Apple (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
Where the listed words were said
…becoming more capable and more personal across your Apple products, to meaningful health insights with Apple Watch, to powerful new AirPods features like Live Translation,…
…far when your data is no longer yours to control. That's why Apple Intelligence runs on-device whenever it can. When greater capability is needed, Private…
…and the world around you. And of course, you'd give it all-day battery life. You'd want it to be super-easy to use without a big…
…And we think the best way to achieve that is with a foldable design. Others have created foldables that just feel like two phones awkwardly…
…the world around you, making it one of the defining features of AirPods Pro. Now, for those who prefer AirPods without ear tips, we introduced…
…can monitor how you sleep, notify you if it detects a high heart rate, and track your workouts. And it's in constant communication with your…
…performance, battery, and camera. iPhone 18 Pro's gorgeous design now includes color-matched aluminum and back glass for a more cohesive look. It comes in an…
…Apple Intelligence. Introducing the new Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4. Both have been re-engineered with our most advanced health sensors and…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/john-ternus:2026-09-09:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=john-ternus:2026-09-09:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP